The global economy is entering a period of slower and less predictable growth. The IMF expects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, below the 3.5% average recorded in 2024 and 2025, while global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.1% to 4.7%1. Geopolitical tensions, volatile energy and commodity markets, and the risk of further trade fragmentation are adding to the uncertainty facing businesses. Against this backdrop, businesses must make decisions about where to invest, source and sell without assuming that the conditions of recent decades will return.
Yet the Santander Global Trade Barometer suggests that weaker economic momentum has not extinguished business ambition. Among the more than 6,000 businesses surveyed, 59% expect revenue to rise over the next 12 months, compared with 50% that reported growth over the past year. Confidence strengthens over the longer term, with 78% of firms positive about their growth prospects over the next three years. The findings point to a business community that is alert to the risks around it, but continues to identify opportunities for growth.
Ambitions vary by geography and strategy
Optimism, though, is not evenly distributed. Businesses in Latin America are the most positive about the year ahead, with 63% expecting revenue to increase, compared with 51% in the US. Differences in domestic demand, cost pressures and geopolitical exposure are likely to shape these regional outlooks. And within regions, countries differ in their exposure to higher input costs, disruption to supply chains and the changing pattern of global investment2.
The more marked divide, however, is between businesses with and without an international presence. Globally, 69% of established international firms expect revenue to increase over the next 12 months, compared with 53% of domestic-only firms. This does not establish that international activity causes greater confidence. It does, however, suggest that businesses already operating across borders tend to see a broader range of opportunities and may be less reliant on conditions in any one market.
1 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update: Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices, October 2026
2 World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, June 2026
