Global Risks 2026: Navigating an Age of Geoeconomic Competition

The Global Risks Report 2026, published by the World Economic Forum, draws on the responses of more than 1,300 global leaders and experts from the business, public and academic spheres. The report depicts an increasingly fragmented world, in which geoeconomic confrontation emerges as the most severe short-term risk, while economic risks, including a potential economic downturn, renewed inflationary pressures and asset bubble bursts, gain prominence amid high debt levels and volatile markets, even as the global economy has shown a notable degree of resilience in the face of uncertainty. As the future is not a single, predetermined path but rather the outcome of the collective decisions taken today, the report calls for effective dialogue and renewed forms of cooperation, flexible, pragmatic and multilateral, as essential tools to address global risks that can no r be managed in isolation.

Key takeaways from the report:

• The global outlook remains highly uncertain. Half of surveyed leaders and experts expect the world to be either “turbulent” or “stormy” over the next two years, while an additional 40% foresee an “unsettled” outlook. Only 9% anticipate a stable environment, and just 1% expect a calm outlook.
  
  
• Geoeconomic confrontation emerges as the leading short-term risk. For the first time, geoeconomic confrontation — including sanctions, investment screening and trade restrictions — ranks as the most severe risk over the two-year horizon. Eighteen percent of respondents identify it as the most likely trigger of a global crisis in 2026, reflecting a context in which trade, finance and technology are increasingly deployed as instruments of power.
  
  
• Misinformation and societal polarization consolidate as structural risks. Both risks feature among the top ten global risks in 2026 and across the two and ten-year horizons. Misinformation, amplified by the widespread use of artificial intelligence, erodes trust in institutions, intensifies political polarization and hampers long-term policymaking, weakening the social contract.
  
  
• Environmental risks remain dominant in the long term despite lower short-term prioritization. While environmental risks decline in the short-term ranking, extreme weather events top the ten-year outlook, alongside biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth systems. The report stresses that this apparent reprioritization reflects pressure from more immediate geopolitical and economic crises rather than a reduction in underlying severity.
  
  
• Technology is accelerating systemic risks. Adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence rise from 30th place in the short term to 5th place in the long term, the sharpest increase across all risks. This is compounded by emerging risks related to cyber insecurity and frontier technologies, with potential impacts on labour markets, financial stability and national security.
  
  
• A new international order shaped by competition among powers is taking hold. Nearly 70% of respondents anticipate a fragmented international order with reduced capacity for collective action. Over the next ten years, only 6% expect a reinvigoration of the previous unipolar, rules-based international order.