Geopolitics implications of technology
The think tank “European Council on Foreign Relations” (@ecfr) released an article analyzing the geopolitics implications of digital technologies for the European Union (EU). “Digital and technological sovereignty” is essential for the EU to “enjoy foreign policy autonomy”, to address vulnerabilities that may arise from 5G, undersea cables or military Artificial Intelligence, and to export European regulatory standards to other countries in favor of data privacy and democratic values.
The article is focusing on the geopolitical dimension of the development, adoption, and regulation of technology in Europe with the following highlights:
- We need to address two types of geopolitical vulnerabilities arising from current technology “status quo” in order to “enjoy foreign policy autonomy”:
‑ A few states are leading or monopolizing Artificial Intelligence (AI), 5G, and other new technologies and digital infrastructures (“sea cables”). That means technological dependence on non-EU providers and poses some risks such as the need to adopt non-EU standards in the ethical approach to AI or in data privacy as EU data already flows to foreign countries and companies.
‑ Openness to foreign interference: According to the article, technologies can also open gaps for states to interfere with others through disinformation campaigns, deep fake news or excess of information, which ultimately foster lack of trust in institutions and democracy. - Recommendations on how to address all these sources of vulnerability. In this regard the EU should:
‑ Improve its data sovereignty by adopting strict regulations on data privacy and ensuring that these are exported to countries and companies that access Europeans’ data.
‑ Invest heavily in exporting technologies and practices that protect democracy and help achieve technological sovereignty.
‑ Engage deeper with external implications and geopolitical power elements of technology.
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Según Boston Consulting Group, la nueva regulación posterior a la crisis financiera global (GFC) reforzó la resiliencia del sector, pero institucionalizó un sesgo orientado a eliminar cualquier riesgo en detrimento del crecimiento económico.
Según Ramón Casilda el acuerdo UE Mercosur permitirá un ahorro arancelario de aproximadamente 4.000 millones de euros anuales, una cifra muy superior a lo esperado en los acuerdos con Canadá y Japón.
Según el economista José Carlos Diez, la banca española tiene un exceso de depósitos y liquidez disponible para atender la demanda de crédito de empresas y familias, y además lo hace con los tipos más bajos de Europa, según el BCE.
Según CEPS, la complejidad regulatoria y supervisora de la UE supone un freno estructural a la integración, inversión y profundidad del mercado, con costes que recaen especialmente en pequeñas empresas nuevos entrantes y modelos de negocio transfronterizos.
Según el BCE, un sistema de pagos eficiente, seguro e integrado reforzaría el papel internacional del euro y aportaría beneficios como menores costes de financiación, menor exposición a fluctuaciones cambiarias y mayor protección frente a sanciones.
According to Boston Consulting Group, regulation brought in after the GFC strengthened the financial sector’s resilience but institutionalized bias towards removing all risk over economic growth.
According to Ramón Casilda, the EU–Mercosur agreement will generate annual tariff savings of around €4 billion, which is significantly higher than the savings expected under the agreements with Canada and Japan.
Según el IEA, uno de los debates clave en la UE sobre simplificación de la regulación financiera es si incluir explícitamente la competitividad, eficiencia o crecimiento como objetivos de las autoridades regulatorias, siguiendo el modelo del Reino Unido.
Economist José Carlos Díez notes that Spain’s banking sector has an excess of deposits and sufficient liquidity to meet the credit demand of companies and households, and does so at the lowest interest rates in Europe, according to the ECB.
Según el Center for the Governance of Change de IE University, unos mercados financieros más profundos e integrados reforzarían el papel global del euro. Esto requiere, entre otros elementos, sistemas de pago resilientes e interoperables y completar la unión bancaria.
According to CEPS, regulatory and supervisory complexity acts as a structural constraint on integration, investment and market depth, with costs that weigh most heavily on smaller institutions, new entrants and cross-border business models.
Alianzas banca–crédito privado: según Oliver Wyman, los ganadores serán quienes combinen la disciplina de análisis y estructuración bancaria, su capacidad de distribución y acceso a clientes, con el apetito del capital privado por riesgo ilíquido y de largo plazo.
According to the ECB, an efficient, secure and integrated payment system would strengthen the international role of the euro and deliver benefits such as lower financing costs, reduced exposure to exchange rate fluctuations and greater protection against sanctions.
Lucrezia Reichlin (CEPR): la CBDC no es condición necesaria para la soberanía monetaria. Confundir dinero y pagos puede generar un diagnóstico equivocado y una mala asignación de esfuerzos de política económica.
According to the IEA one key debate in the EU on financial regulation simplification is whether to explicitly include competitiveness, efficiency or contribution to growth as objectives of the regulatory agencies, following the UK example.
Según el Global Risks Report 2026 del World Economic Forum, la confrontación geoeconómica, la desinformación y la polarización social destacan como los principales riesgos a corto plazo, mientras que los riesgos ambientales dominan el largo plazo.
Según el World Economic Forum, la IA ha pasado de la experimentación a integrarse en los procesos de trabajo, prometiendo fuertes incrementos de productividad, pero también planteando retos clave sobre inclusión económica, valores, confianza y resiliencia.
According to IE University’s Center for the Governance of Change, deeper and more integrated financial markets would strengthen the euro’s global role. This requires, among other elements, resilient and interoperable payment systems and completing the banking union.
Según AFME, un marco regulatorio más claro, coherente y proporcionado, sin capas innecesarias y centrado en crecimiento y competitividad, es clave para aumentar la confianza, movilizar capital privado y profundizar los mercados de capitales europeos.
Partnerships between banks and private credit: The winners will be those that combine bank underwriting discipline, distribution, and customer access with private capital’s appetite for long-dated, illiquid risk, according to Oliver Wyman.
Lucrezia Reichlin (CEPR): A CBDC is not a prerequisite for monetary sovereignty. Confusing money with payments can risk misdiagnosing the problem and misaligning economic policy efforts.
According to the World Economic Forum´s Global Risk Report 2026, geoeconomic confrontation, mis- and disinformation and societal polarization make up the top three short-term risks, while environmental risks dominate in the long term.
According to the World Economic Forum, over the last few years AI has moved from experimentation to workflow integration, promising systemic gains in productivity while also raising critical questions around economic inclusion, values, trust and resilience.
According to AFME, a clearer, more coherent, and proportionate regulatory environment, without unnecessary layers and focuses on growth and competitiveness, is keyl to increase investor confidence, unlock private capital and deepen European capital markets