Deglobalization?, what deglobalization?
According to a recent McKinsey´s report, contrary to the dominant idea that the world is already deglobalizing, evidence suggest it remains deeply interconnected, and trade flows linked to knowledge and know-how have proved remarkably resilient during the most recent turbulence. The challenge therefore is to harness the benefits of interconnection while managing the risks and downsides of dependency emerged during the pandemic and in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine.
- International flows of intangibles, services, and students are now driving global integration: Trade flows of these concepts grew about twice as fast as goods in 2010–19. Within services, flows of knowledge-intensive services—including professional services, government services, IT services, and telecommunications—are growing the fastest. Data flows grew at nearly 50 percent annually.
- Resilience of global flows in turbulent times: Despite the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and recent economic and political turbulence, most global flows (goods, services, data…) of trade continued to grow or even accelerated in 2020 and 2021. The only flows that dropped substantially were those linked to the international movement of people (i.e., travel and transportation services - 40% in 2020).
- The world is interconnected, and no region is close to being self-sufficient: Every region has been importing 25% or more (in value-added terms) of at least one important type of resource or manufactured good that it needs, and often much more.
- Products whose origins are concentrated in just a few geographies exist in all sectors and most notably in electronics and mining: For instance, >75% of global iron exports come from Australia and Brazil.
- Global value chains may be reshaped by new forces (national security, resilience, competitiveness) in the coming decade making them more regional (i.e., the case of semiconductors).
- Multinational corporations account for about two-thirds of the world's exports and are key players in the globalisation of trade flows to shape the future in favour of growth and prosperity.
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According to IE University’s Center for the Governance of Change, deeper and more integrated financial markets would strengthen the euro’s global role. This requires, among other elements, resilient and interoperable payment systems and completing the banking union.
Partnerships between banks and private credit: The winners will be those that combine bank underwriting discipline, distribution, and customer access with private capital’s appetite for long-dated, illiquid risk, according to Oliver Wyman.
Lucrezia Reichlin (CEPR): A CBDC is not a prerequisite for monetary sovereignty. Confusing money with payments can risk misdiagnosing the problem and misaligning economic policy efforts.
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According to the World Economic Forum, over the last few years AI has moved from experimentation to workflow integration, promising systemic gains in productivity while also raising critical questions around economic inclusion, values, trust and resilience.
According to AFME, a clearer, more coherent, and proportionate regulatory environment, without unnecessary layers and focuses on growth and competitiveness, is keyl to increase investor confidence, unlock private capital and deepen European capital markets
According to the Center for the Governance of Change at IE University, Europeans support technological progress if it reinforces security, inclusion, and social welfare; but resist it when change feels imposed, opaque, or misaligned with their values.
According to a recent report released by CEPS, European financial regulators should adopt competitiveness as a formal secondary objective, following the precedent established by the UK's Financial Services and Markets Act 2023.
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According to @McKinsey, banks must prepare for a new growth curve. Strategic precision —the ability to combine technology, capital discipline, and deep customer insight— will distinguish the leaders from the laggards.
According to Kristalina Georgeva IMF Managing Director, lifting growth requires three things: one, regulatory housecleaning to unleash private enterprise; two, deeper regional integration; and three, preparedness to harness AI.
According to The European House – Ambrosetti, the European Union has an opportunity to boost competitiveness and growth by simplifying regulatory and supervisory frameworks, particularly in the areas of sustainability and the financial sector.